Juan Reyes

PhD Candidate in Economics

The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty


Unpublished


Juan Rufino M. Reyes
King's College London, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, 2025 Oct

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APA   Click to copy
Reyes, J. R. M. (2025, October). The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty. Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence.


Chicago/Turabian   Click to copy
Reyes, Juan Rufino M. “The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty.” Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, October 2025.


MLA   Click to copy
Reyes, Juan Rufino M. The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty. Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, Oct. 2025.


BibTeX   Click to copy

@unpublished{juan2025a,
  title = {The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty},
  year = {2025},
  month = oct,
  institution = {Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence},
  school = {King's College London},
  author = {Reyes, Juan Rufino M.},
  month_numeric = {10}
}

Artificial Intelligence, Uncertainty, Text Analysis, Business Cycle
AI Uncertainty (AIU) Index, M1:2016-M4:2025 (3 Month Moving Avg.)
This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of uncertainty shocks related to artificial intelligence (AI). I construct a novel text-based AI Uncertainty (AIU) Index from newspaper coverage. The index displays sharp increases around notable AI developments and policy actions, while demonstrating limited correlation with broader measures of economic uncertainty. At the aggregate level, I find that AI uncertainty shocks broadly affect financial markets, labour market outcomes, and real activity. Industry-level estimates, in turn, highlight heterogeneous adjustments in the intensive and extensive margins. The results indicate that uncertainty surrounding AI constitutes a distinct and emerging source of macroeconomic outcomes.

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