APA
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Reyes, J. R. M. (2026). The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty*. ESCoE Discussion Paper No. 2026-02. Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence.
Chicago/Turabian
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Reyes, Juan Rufino M. The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty*. ESCoE Discussion Paper No. 2026-02. Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, February 2026.
MLA
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Reyes, Juan Rufino M. “The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty*.” ESCoE Discussion Paper No. 2026-02, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence, Feb. 2026.
BibTeX Click to copy
@techreport{juan2026a,
title = {The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty*},
year = {2026},
month = feb,
institution = {Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence},
journal = {ESCoE Discussion Paper No. 2026-02},
school = {King's College London},
author = {Reyes, Juan Rufino M.},
month_numeric = {2}
}
* Best Paper, 8th Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) Economics and Finance Workshop
This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) through a novel text-based AI Uncertainty (AIU) Index. I identify AI uncertainty shocks using an SVAR with an external instrument that isolates the uncertainty component of AI-related news coverage. The results indicate that an increase in AI uncertainty generates contractionary effects concentrated in equity prices, wages, and hours worked, while employment and industrial production remain largely unaffected. This transmission pattern differs from that of conventional uncertainty shocks, which produce broader movements across macroeconomic aggregates. Industry-level estimates reveal heterogeneous labour market adjustments, with industries more exposed to AI showing stronger responses.
Presented at the following conferences and seminars:
Suggested Citation:
Reyes, J. (2026). The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty. Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Paper 2026-02, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=6233958 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6233958