The Macroeconomic Effects of AI Uncertainty

This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of uncertainty shocks related to artificial intelligence (AI). I construct a novel text-based AI Uncertainty (AIU) Index from newspaper coverage. The index displays sharp increases around notable AI developments and policy actions, while demonstrating limited correlation with broader measures of economic uncertainty. At the aggregate level, I find that AI uncertainty shocks broadly affect financial markets, labour market outcomes, and real activity. Industry-level estimates, in turn, highlight heterogeneous adjustments in the intensive and extensive margins. The results indicate that uncertainty surrounding AI constitutes a distinct and emerging source of macroeconomic outcomes.